Individual variation in vaccine immune response can produce bimodal distributions of protection
- Author(s)
- Zachreson, C; Tobin, R; Szanyi, J; Walker, C; Cromer, D; Shearer, FM; Conway, E; Ryan, G; Cheng, A; McCaw, JM; Geard, N;
- Details
- Publication Year 2023-10-26,Volume 41,Issue #45,Page 6630-6636
- Journal Title
- Vaccine
- Abstract
- The ability for vaccines to protect against infectious diseases varies among individuals, but computational models employed to inform policy typically do not account for this variation. Here we examine this issue: we implement a model of vaccine efficacy developed in the context of SARS-CoV-2 in order to evaluate the general implications of modelling correlates of protection on the individual level. Due to high levels of variation in immune response, the distributions of individual-level protection emerging from this model tend to be highly dispersed, and are often bimodal. We describe the specification of the model, provide an intuitive parameterisation, and comment on its general robustness. We show that the model can be viewed as an intermediate between the typical approaches that consider the mode of vaccine action to be either "all-or-nothing" or "leaky". Our view based on this analysis is that individual variation in correlates of protection is an important consideration that may be crucial to designing and implementing models for estimating population-level impacts of vaccination programs.
- Publisher
- Cell Press
- Keywords
- Humans; *COVID-19/prevention & control; SARS-CoV-2; *Vaccines; *Communicable Diseases; Immunity; Correlates of protection; Immunogenicity; Leaky vaccines; Models of vaccine efficacy; Vaccine efficacy; Waning immunity
- Research Division(s)
- Population Health And Immunity
- PubMed ID
- 37793975
- Publisher's Version
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.09.025
- Open Access at Publisher's Site
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.09.025- Terms of Use/Rights Notice
- Refer to copyright notice on published article.
Creation Date: 2023-11-20 12:03:44
Last Modified: 2023-11-20 12:25:09